In the US’s entire post-Second World War history, there has never seen such a large differential between government borrowing and the unemployment rate. More than three-fourths of the panelists (76%) said they support the $300 billion deficit reduction goal of the legislation, which President Joe Biden signed into law last week. There was also notable support for the 15% minimum corporate tax (69% of economist were in favor), the healthcare subsidies and drug-pricing reform (68% in favor) and the climate change subsidies, rebates and investments (63% in favor). The Federal Reserve is unlikely to tame inflation without pushing the American economy into a recession, according to a survey of economists released Monday. Chinese local governments have accumulated substantial debt through off-balance-sheet entities known as Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs).

The Trump administration’s tariff threats are as much about politics as they are about economics, experts say

• We now understand a recession as a contraction in the economy, usually featuring a slump in consumer consumption, a decrease in production and higher unemployment levels.
• As far as geopolitical tensions go, we’ve got conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and ongoing U.S.-China frictions.
• A combination of high interest rates and reduced consumer demand could lead to job cuts and decreased capital investment in innovation.
• While there’s potential for job displacement due to increased automation, there’s also a chance for creating new job opportunities in emerging fields.
• “Fitch expects the U.S. economy to enter genuine recession territory — albeit relatively mild by historical standards — in 2Q23,” Olu Sonola, head of US regional economics at Fitch Ratings, said in a statement.

One us recession on the horizon when experts think it could hit of our favorite economic indicators is the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Indices. These are surveys taken of purchasing managers, those key executives on the economic front lines. We like these indices because they tend to be the first look at the prior month’s economy and they have a high correlation to stock market returns. When these indices are above 50, they indicate expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.

Recession Watch: Understanding The Economy’s Surprising Resilience

The public reaction to these economic forecasts is expectedly mixed, reflecting a range of emotions from concern and skepticism to debate and proactive financial planning. Many individuals express anxiety over possible economic downturns and job losses, while some remain skeptical about prognostications based on past inaccuracies. As a result, personal finance discussions flourish, with many seeking ways to secure their financial futures.

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The M2 money supply started to re-expand this year, rising 2.47% year-over-year at the end of September. But that rate remains well-below the 6% growth Hanke thinks is needed to maintain inflation at the Fed’s target rate — a sign, in his view, that the economy is growing too slowly. A higher cost of financing will almost surely lead to consolidation in manufacturing amid a permanent rise in costs. Adding to this consolidation is the return of industrial policy in areas like semiconductor manufacturing. Expect firms with economies of scale to make their own strategic acquisitions and take advantage of this shift in economic policy.

• While some analysts remain cautiously optimistic that the global economy might avoid a full-blown recession, several risks continue to loom on the horizon.
• Additionally, there is significant focus on personal finance, with individuals seeking strategies to navigate potential economic downturns.
• One significant concern is the possibility of a recession, with economists providing mixed forecasts.
• President Trump started his second term with a flurry of executive orders, including imposing immediate trade tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.
• Conversations on platforms like social media and finance forums reflect the public’s scrutiny and emotional engagement with economic developments.
• Additionally, inflation as measured by both the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index show cooling based on year-over-year changes.

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While there’s potential for job displacement due to increased automation, there’s also a chance for creating new job opportunities in emerging fields. Consequently, income levels could benefit from such technological advancements if coupled with reskilling and education initiatives to prepare the workforce for these new roles. Emerging industries related to AI ethics, governance, and cybersecurity are likely to see growth, as companies must ensure these intelligent systems operate safely and ethically. Additionally, professions involved in training AI systems, such as data annotation and machine learning engineering, could see a surge in demand.

This shift is also influenced by changing trade agreements and geopolitical dynamics, which are reshaping the global trading landscape. Technological advancements, like AI and automation, offer potential solutions for mitigating supply chain disruptions by enhancing efficiency and predictive capabilities. However, the integration of these technologies also presents challenges, such as the need for workforce reskilling and the ethical considerations of increased automation.

What People Are Saying

AI’s emergence as a force in the job market is anticipated to reshape employment landscapes by 2025. Although the article mentions AI’s potential impact briefly, it suggests that some sectors may experience job displacements while others could benefit from technological advancements. The need for reskilling and upskilling workers to adapt to these changes is becoming increasingly apparent as industries evolve. Moreover, digital trade is becoming a centerpiece in the evolution of new trade agreements.